Before each NFL season begins, professional bettors engage in several key preparations to enhance their chances of success. One important task is updating a list of beat writers for every team. This helps them gain an advantage by staying informed about any team or player injuries before the betting market reacts.
Another crucial activity involves reviewing scoring outcomes from the previous three seasons and updating key metrics that indicate line movements. Additionally, bettors also take time to examine any rule changes and predict how these may affect gameplay.
As the new season approaches, three notable rule changes in the NFL merit attention due to their potential impact on the field and in betting circles.
Dynamic Kickoff Rule: Touchbacks to the 35-Yard Line
Over the past decade, the NFL has made a series of adjustments to the touchback yardage. To prioritize player safety, the league moved kickoff touchbacks from the 20-yard line to the 25-yard line in 2016. This resulted in teams opting for touchbacks more frequently, leading to a significant decline in kick returns.
Last season, the NFL adjusted touchbacks again, this time to the 30-yard line, in an effort to encourage more returns. However, this change yielded only a minimal increase, with about a 10% rise in return rates, as teams still favored downing the ball in the end zone.
With the new rule in place this season, touchbacks are now advanced to the 35-yard line. This shift places greater pressure on kickers to aim their kicks strategically, pushing them to land the ball inside the 10-yard line to force returns.
Betting Impact: The increase in starting field position is likely to lead to more scoring opportunities. With drives beginning at the 35-yard line, teams will have a better chance to reach scoring range more quickly. Even a basic drive of two first downs places a team in the range for a field goal. The chances for touchdowns and turnovers during returns also rise with more kickoff action. This suggests that betting on higher score totals may benefit from this rule change, especially for teams with effective special teams.
Expanded Replay Assist
The new expanded replay-assist rules allow officials in the booth to overturn incorrect flags on the field for specific penalties, such as face masks or roughing the kicker. However, while this change can quickly clear up bad calls, it can only remove penalties and cannot add new ones. The reviews must also be for “clear and obvious” situations as defined by the league.
Betting Impact: The potential result of this rule is a very slight reduction in scoring. Since some penalties that contribute to automatic first downs could be reversed, this may benefit defenses. However, such occurrences are expected to occur less frequently, possibly having a minimal overall effect. Still, teams like the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans, which tend to rack up penalties, might experience some significance in this area. Bettors should consider live betting opportunities immediately after a call that may be overturned.
Thursday Night Flex Scheduling
With the NFL’s new flexible scheduling for Thursday Night Football, the league can now change matchups with just three weeks’ notice, down from four. This rule was initiated partly due to past underwhelming matchups, like the Colts versus the Broncos game, which ended in a non-touchdown victory last season.
Betting Impact: This flexibility may create new betting opportunities. When scheduling changes are announced, bettors should take a close look at the specific matchups, particularly any rest or travel differences between teams. Additionally, targeting under bets could be wise in these flexed games, as the odds might remain inaccurately priced following the announcement.
In conclusion, as the new NFL season unfolds, bettors should keep these evolving rules in mind. Understanding how each change impacts team dynamics, scoring potentials, and betting opportunities will be essential in making well-informed decisions. With strategic adjustments, bettors can potentially find value that resonates throughout the season.
